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Big blind holds Jc Th. Button holds Ad Ks.
Flop is 9d 8h 4s.
The situation above is practically a coin flip (49.4% vs 50.6%). Therefore, the number of bets
on the flop is effectively irrelevant. The only pertinent question is how the big blind's actions
on the flop affect the turn and river play. Simply put, if a check-raise on the flop is more likely
to cause the button to lay down its hand on the turn, then the big blind should unquestionably
check-raise the flop and bet again on the turn.
If an Ace or King does fall on the turn, then the button might raise and cost the big blind an
extra big bet. Figuring in the odds of sucking out on the river (Queen or Seven), the true price
would be .818 big bets. Meanwhile, when the button fails to improve on the turn (on the 39
cards that are not an Ace or King), the big blind may well win the whole pot. Based on earlier
assumptions, that pot would include 5.25 big bets.
It is important to realize that the big blind's flop play does not make a difference if an Ace or
King falls on the turn. Either way (check-raising or betting out), the big blind will have control
of the hand. The big blind will lose the same amount if an Ace or King hits or if the button
refuses to lay down against two blanks. Again, the key is the likelihood the button will drop its
hand when a blank hits. **Note: The big blind is a significant underdog on the turn if a blank
hits, so the big blind wants the button to lay down the AKo.** If the chance of a fold is
increased even 1% by a check-raise, then a check-raise should be employed.
But what if the button raises the flop with overcards and takes control of the hand? It should
be obvious that allowing the button to take a free card or bet the turn to check the river would
be very bad for our hero, the big blind. In both cases, the button has increased its chances of
improving and/or seeing a showdown. At showdown, the button wins EVERY single time the
big blind does not improve (and some times when both hands make a pair). Therefore, if a
check-raise on the flop is more likely to take control of the hand, it is again a superior play
since it vastly increases the odds the big blind will win the money already in the pot. This
"control" factor strongly supports the case to check-raise with drawing hands.
I cannot emphasize enough that the only time the check-raise is disadvantageous is when the
button holds a legitimate, strong hand. Even then, the check-raise only costs a fraction of a
small bet. Meanwhile, the check-raise increases the likelihood of winning pots without making
a hand.
Scenario 2. Middle Pair
Holding middle pair in a heads-up confrontation is certainly tricky. It is beyond the scope of
this article to suggest all the proper ways to handle this delicate situation, but we can begin to
consider the impact of our two main options.
Example 2a. 5-out Middle Pair
Big blind holds Tc 9c. Button holds As 4s.
Flop is Ah 9s 6c.
This is a good example of how a middle pair can be dangerous. The big blind is behind, and the
button will likely raise a bet or (maybe) even a check-raise on the flop. An argument could be
made that this is one of the exceptional cases where a bet out is superior since most opponents
would not raise the flop without an Ace.
Let's assume the button will raise or re-raise with top pair on the flop. Let's also assume that
the big blind will call a raise on the flop to try for a suck-out on the turn.
" Betting out wins an average of (.232 * 8.5) = 1.972 small bets/hand (-.028 loss.)
" Check-raising wins an average of (.232 * 10.5) = 2.436 small bets/hand (-.564 loss.)
This is a situation where the check-raise is clearly an inferior play. The big blind is a significant
underdog, with 5 outs for two pair or runner-runner clubs for the flush. It should also be noted
that the calculations above assume all the outs are clean. If the button held As Ts or As 6s,
then the big blind would be drawing to only two outs. In those cases, the loss is even worse.
Example 2b. Middle Pair with Counterfeit Outs
Big blind holds Tc9c. Button holds AsTs.
Flop is Ah 9s 3d.
" Betting out wins an average of (.136 * 8.5) = 1.156 small bets/hand (-.844 loss.)
" Check-raising wins an average of (.136 * 10.5) = 1.428 small bets/hand (-1.572 loss.)
Knowing that sometimes we will face a losing proposition with second pair or worse, should
we still regularly check-raise with middle pair rather than bet out? The answer continues to lie
in our assumption of the opponent's holdings. In each example above, the button has a [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]